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Simulation of the Indian Ocean Dipole: A relevant criterion for selecting models for climate projections
Author(s) -
Cai W.,
Sullivan A.,
Cowan T.,
Ribbe J.,
Shi G.
Publication year - 2011
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2010gl046242
Subject(s) - thermocline , indian ocean dipole , climatology , shoaling and schooling , walker circulation , global warming , climate model , environmental science , general circulation model , climate change , atmospheric sciences , sea surface temperature , geology , oceanography
A multi‐model average shows that 21st century warming over the eastern Indian Ocean (IO) is slower than that to the west, but with strong inter‐model variations. Is the simulation of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) relevant to these variations? We demonstrate that inter‐model variations of this future warming are consistent with how well models simulate historical IOD properties; models with a stronger IOD amplitude systematically produce a slower eastern IO warming rate with greater future rainfall changes in IOD‐affected regions. These models also produce a stronger Bjerknes‐like positive feedback, involving sea surface temperatures (SSTs), winds and a shoaling thermocline in the eastern IO. As warming proceeds, models with a stronger positive feedback induce a greater response to warming‐induced changes such as easterly trends associated with the Walker circulation, generating a smaller warming in the eastern IO. Simulating the present‐day IOD properties is, therefore, a relevant criterion for selecting models for climate projections.