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Classification of precipitation events with a convective response timescale and their forecasting characteristics
Author(s) -
Zimmer M.,
Craig G. C.,
Keil C.,
Wernli H.
Publication year - 2011
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2010gl046199
Subject(s) - precipitation , convection , quantitative precipitation forecast , environmental science , meteorology , climatology , radiosonde , hydrostatic equilibrium , radar , atmospheric sciences , geology , physics , telecommunications , quantum mechanics , computer science
The convective timescale τ c , which is mainly determined by the ratio of CAPE and precipitation rate, provides a physically‐based measure to distinguish equilibrium and non‐equilibrium convection. A statistical analysis of this timescale, based upon observational data from radiosonde ascents, rain gauges, and radar for seven warm seasons in Germany, reveals that the equilibrium and non‐equilibrium regimes can be regarded as extremes of a continuous distribution. The two regimes characterize very different interactions between the large‐scale flow and convection. The quality of precipitation forecasts from a non‐hydrostatic regional weather prediction model with parameterized convection differs substantially for the two regimes, with strong overestimations and too large precipitation objects for the non‐equilibrium events.