Premium
Biological regime shifts and changes in predictability
Author(s) -
Dippner Joachim W.,
Junker Karin,
Kröncke Ingrid
Publication year - 2010
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2010gl045696
Subject(s) - predictability , regime shift , benthic zone , environmental science , climate change , series (stratigraphy) , biomass (ecology) , oceanography , ecology , climatology , geology , ecosystem , biology , mathematics , statistics , paleontology
Time series of climate indices and of biomass, abundance, and species number of benthic macrofauna in the southern North Sea are related to each other to investigate the predictability of biological time series in presence of biological regime shifts in 1989/1990 and 2001/2002. The results indicate that a smooth biological regime shift occurred in 1989/1990 caused by positive climate feedback mechanisms. In this case, the benthic community structure remained predictable. In contrast, in 2001/2002 an abrupt biological regime shift caused by a climate regime shift occurred. Here became the biological time series inherently unpredictable.