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Comparing variability and trends in observed and modelled global‐mean surface temperature
Author(s) -
Fyfe John C.,
Gillett Nathan P.,
Thompson David W. J.
Publication year - 2010
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2010gl044255
Subject(s) - climatology , volcano , mean radiant temperature , forcing (mathematics) , environmental science , global temperature , global warming , natural (archaeology) , surface air temperature , southern oscillation , climate model , atmospheric temperature , explosive material , climate change , atmospheric sciences , series (stratigraphy) , oscillation (cell signaling) , geology , el niño southern oscillation , geography , paleontology , oceanography , archaeology , seismology , biology , genetics
The observed evolution of the global‐mean surface temperature over the twentieth century reflects the combined influences of natural variations and anthropogenic forcing, and it is a primary goal of climate models to represent both. In this study we isolate, compare, and remove the following natural signals in observations and in climate models: dynamically induced atmospheric variability, the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation, and explosive volcanic eruptions. We make clear the significant model‐to‐model variability in estimates of the variance in global‐mean temperature associated with these natural signals, especially associated with the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation and explosive volcanic eruptions. When these natural signals are removed from time series of global‐mean temperature, the statistical uncertainty in linear trends from 1950 to 2000 drops on average by about half. Hence, the results make much clearer than before where some model estimates of global warming significantly deviate from observations and where others do not.