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On the effect of a new grand minimum of solar activity on the future climate on Earth
Author(s) -
Feulner Georg,
Rahmstorf Stefan
Publication year - 2010
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2010gl042710
Subject(s) - climate change , solar minimum , northern hemisphere , greenhouse gas , environmental science , solar variation , atmospheric sciences , climatology , global warming , solar maximum , geology , physics , solar cycle , solar wind , oceanography , quantum mechanics , magnetic field
The current exceptionally long minimum of solar activity has led to the suggestion that the Sun might experience a new grand minimum in the next decades, a prolonged period of low activity similar to the Maunder minimum in the late 17th century. The Maunder minimum is connected to the Little Ice Age, a time of markedly lower temperatures, in particular in the Northern hemisphere. Here we use a coupled climate model to explore the effect of a 21st‐century grand minimum on future global temperatures, finding a moderate temperature offset of no more than −0.3°C in the year 2100 relative to a scenario with solar activity similar to recent decades. This temperature decrease is much smaller than the warming expected from anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions by the end of the century.