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Earth's dynamo limit of predictability
Author(s) -
Hulot G.,
Lhuillier F.,
Aubert J.
Publication year - 2010
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2009gl041869
Subject(s) - dynamo , predictability , dynamo theory , physics , space weather , geophysics , magnetic field , meteorology , geology , environmental science , quantum mechanics
Earth's magnetic field is currently decreasing, reducing the protection it offers against charged particles coming from space and increasing space weather hazards within the near‐Earth environment. Modeling the future evolution of the field is thus of considerable interest. But how far in the future this can conceivably be done is still an open question. Here we report on the first systematic investigation of the limit of predictability of fully consistent 3D numerical dynamo simulations, and suggest that the Earth's dynamo is likely unpredictable beyond a century, making decade timescale forecasts of the main magnetic field conceivable, but rendering longer‐term predictions, such as the timing of the next reversal, totally unpredictable.