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Anthropogenic forcing dominates sea level rise since 1850
Author(s) -
Jevrejeva S.,
Grinsted A.,
Moore J. C.
Publication year - 2009
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2009gl040216
Subject(s) - radiative forcing , environmental science , volcano , sea level , greenhouse gas , atmospheric sciences , forcing (mathematics) , climatology , greenhouse effect , radiative transfer , climate change , global warming , oceanography , geology , physics , quantum mechanics , seismology
The rate of sea level rise and its causes are topics of active debate. Here we use a delayed response statistical model to attribute the past 1000 years of sea level variability to various natural (volcanic and solar radiative) and anthropogenic (greenhouse gases and aerosols) forcings. We show that until 1800 the main drivers of sea level change are volcanic and solar radiative forcings. For the past 200 years sea level rise is mostly associated with anthropogenic factors. Only 4 ± 1.5 cm (25% of total sea level rise) during the 20th century is attributed to natural forcings, the remaining 14 ± 1.5 cm are due to a rapid increase in CO 2 and other greenhouse gases.