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Estimating allowable carbon emission for CO 2 concentration stabilization using a GCM‐based Earth system model
Author(s) -
Miyama Toru,
Kawamiya Michio
Publication year - 2009
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2009gl039678
Subject(s) - carbon cycle , environmental science , carbon fibers , atmospheric sciences , gcm transcription factors , climate change , saturation (graph theory) , earth system science , greenhouse gas , climatology , general circulation model , materials science , geology , ecosystem , mathematics , ecology , oceanography , combinatorics , composite number , composite material , biology
For atmospheric CO 2 concentration stabilization, we projected allowable carbon emission with an Earth system model based on a general circulation model. Our calculations on centennial timescale in various scenarios reveal how saturation with respect to CO 2 and climate‐carbon cycle feedback reduce natural carbon uptake, and hence allowable emission. In 450 ppm stabilization scenario, for example, climate‐carbon cycle feedback reduces the accumulative allowable carbon emission until year 2300 from 1248 to 980 PgC. The Emission at the year 2050 is about the half of the year 2000 level for the SP450 scenario. Terrestrial carbon cycle is especially susceptible to climate‐carbon cycle feedback, and is a significant source of projection uncertainty. Our model responds nonlinearly to CO 2 and climate, suggesting process‐based models are indispensable tool for future climate‐carbon cycle projections.