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Impact of the Madden Julian Oscillation on tropical storms and risk of landfall in the ECMWF forecast system
Author(s) -
Vitart F.
Publication year - 2009
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2009gl039089
Subject(s) - madden–julian oscillation , landfall , climatology , tropical cyclone , environmental science , meteorology , storm , oscillation (cell signaling) , atlantic hurricane , geology , convection , geography , biology , genetics
Using a series of 46‐days hindcasts, this paper shows that the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) has a significant impact on the statistics of tropical storms generated by a dynamical model. This impact is generally consistent with observations. In particular the risk of landfall over Australia and North America varies significantly with the phases of the MJO, as observed. This suggests that sub‐seasonal prediction of the risk of tropical storm landfall should be possible with a dynamical model such as the one used in this study, which has skill in predicting the evolution of the MJO up to 20 days.