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Twenty‐five years of Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts (1984–2008)
Author(s) -
Klotzbach Philip J.,
Gray William M.
Publication year - 2009
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2009gl037580
Subject(s) - hindcast , atlantic hurricane , climatology , forecast skill , tropical cyclone , environmental science , meteorology , geography , geology
The Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University, led by Dr. William Gray, has been issuing Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts in early June and early August since 1984. This paper examines the skill of these forecasts over the past twenty‐five years (1984–2008) compared with climatology and a previous 3‐year, 5‐year and 10‐year mean. Seasonal forecasts are shown to have smaller mean‐squared errors than any of these metrics for most parameters, although improvements have been modest. The forecast models used by the Tropical Meteorology Project have changed over time, and the current early June and early August model's skill at hindcasting the past twenty‐five years are investigated using cross‐validation. Preliminary research indicates that using these new models may result in more significant skill improvements in future years.