Premium
Smaller projected increases in 20‐year temperature returns over Australia in skill‐selected climate models
Author(s) -
Perkins S. E.,
Pitman A. J.,
Sisson S. A.
Publication year - 2009
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2009gl037293
Subject(s) - maximum temperature , climate change , probability density function , mean radiant temperature , matching (statistics) , environmental science , function (biology) , climatology , climate model , econometrics , statistics , atmospheric sciences , mathematics , physics , geology , evolutionary biology , biology , oceanography
Using results from the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, changes in the 20‐year return levels for Australian daily maximum and daily minimum temperature were derived using extreme value theory. The climate models were evaluated using each of (a) mean performance, (b) skill in matching the observed probability density function and (c) skill in capturing the tails of the probability density function. Each weak‐skilled model ensemble projected larger increases in both the maximum and minimum temperature return levels compared to each strong‐skilled ensemble. The weak and strong skilled ensembles in maximum temperature were statistically significantly different. Over Australia, weak‐skilled models therefore simulated statistically significantly larger amounts of warming compared to stronger models in maximum temperature and larger amounts of warming in minimum temperature irrespective of how skill was assessed.