Open AccessForecasting Solar Cycle 24 using the relationship between cycle length and maximum sunspot number
Author(s) -
Watari S.
Publication year - 2008
Publication title -
space weather
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.254
H-Index - 56
ISSN - 1542-7390
DOI - 10.1029/2008sw000397
Subject(s) - sunspot number , sunspot , solar minimum , solar maximum , solar cycle , solar cycle 24 , correlation coefficient , mathematics , environmental science , atmospheric sciences , physics , statistics , quantum mechanics , magnetic field , solar wind
The parameters characterizing a solar cycle are its length and its maximum sunspot number. There is a good negative correlation (correlation coefficient is −0.661) between the length of a solar cycle and the maximum monthly smoothed sunspot number of the next cycle. This suggests that the length is an important parameter in determining the variations of solar activity. Using this relationship, I forecast lower solar activity in Cycle 24 than in Cycle 23.