Open AccessStratospheric predictability and sudden stratospheric warming events
Author(s) -
Stan Cristiana,
Straus David M.
Publication year - 2009
Publication title -
journal of geophysical research: atmospheres
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.67
H-Index - 298
eISSN - 2156-2202
pISSN - 0148-0227
DOI - 10.1029/2008jd011277
Subject(s) - stratosphere , predictability , troposphere , sudden stratospheric warming , environmental science , atmospheric sciences , climatology , quasi biennial oscillation , flux (metallurgy) , polar vortex , geology , physics , materials science , metallurgy , quantum mechanics
A comparative study of the limit of predictability in the stratosphere and troposphere in a coupled general circulation model is carried out using the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Interactive Ensemble (CFSIE). In “identical twin experiments”, we compare the forecast errors of zonal wind and potential temperature in the troposphere and stratosphere for various wave groups. The results show smaller intrinsic error growth in the lower stratosphere compared with troposphere. The limit of predictability of sudden stratospheric warming events, measured by the errors in the divergence of the Eliassen‐Palm flux, is dominated by the amplification of small errors in the individual fields due to differences between the phase of the waves.