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Earthquake early warning system in southern Italy: Methodologies and performance evaluation
Author(s) -
Zollo A.,
Iannaccone G.,
Lancieri M.,
Cantore L.,
Convertito V.,
Emolo A.,
Festa G.,
Gallovič F.,
Vassallo M.,
Martino C.,
Satriano C.,
Gasparini P.
Publication year - 2009
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2008gl036689
Subject(s) - seismology , warning system , azimuth , earthquake warning system , interval (graph theory) , probabilistic logic , standard deviation , early warning system , geology , earthquake prediction , fault (geology) , geodesy , measure (data warehouse) , computer science , statistics , data mining , mathematics , telecommunications , geometry , combinatorics
We investigate the effect of extended faulting processes and heterogeneous wave propagation on the early warning system capability to predict the peak ground velocity (PGV) from moderate to large earthquakes occurring in the southern Apennines (Italy). Simulated time histories at the early warning network have been used to retrieve early estimates of source parameters and to predict the PGV, following an evolutionary, probabilistic approach. The system performance is measured through the Effective Lead‐Time (ELT), i.e., the time interval between the arrival of the first S‐wave and the time at which the probability to observe the true PGV value within one standard deviation becomes stationary, and the Probability of Prediction Error (PPE), which provides a measure of PGV prediction error. The regional maps of ELT and PPE show a significant variability around the fault up to large distances, thus indicating that the system's capability to accurately predict the observed peak ground motion strongly depends on distance and azimuth from the fault.