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Predicting the geodetic signature of M W ≥ 8 slow slip events
Author(s) -
Meade Brendan J.,
Loveless John P.
Publication year - 2009
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2008gl036364
Subject(s) - subduction , seismology , geodetic datum , slip (aerodynamics) , geology , episodic tremor and slip , trench , geodesy , tectonics , materials science , physics , thermodynamics , layer (electronics) , composite material
Elastic dislocation models of geodetic measurements above subduction zones have led to the identification of M W ≈ 6.0–7.2 slow slip events (SSEs) that release elastic strain over periods of days to months, but great (M W ≥ 8) SSEs have remained unidentified. We extrapolate observations of SSE duration and slip magnitude to show that slip velocity decreases with event magnitude and predict that the slip velocity of M W ≥ 8 SSEs is ≤50 mm/yr. The slip velocity for great SSEs may never exceed the plate convergence rate and thus never produce a reversal in trench perpendicular motion. Instead, geodetically constrained estimates of apparent partial elastic coupling on subduction zone interfaces worldwide may be direct observations of ongoing M W ≥ 8 silent earthquakes with durations of decades to centuries.