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Transient response of severe thunderstorm forcing to elevated greenhouse gas concentrations
Author(s) -
Trapp Robert J.,
Diffenbaugh Noah S.,
Gluhovsky Alexander
Publication year - 2009
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2008gl036203
Subject(s) - forcing (mathematics) , thunderstorm , environmental science , greenhouse gas , climatology , atmospheric sciences , climate change , radiative forcing , climate model , transient (computer programming) , meteorology , geology , geography , oceanography , computer science , operating system
We investigate the transient response of severe‐thunderstorm forcing to the time‐varying greenhouse gas concentrations associated with the A1B emissions scenario. Using a five‐member ensemble of global climate model experiments, we find a positive trend in such forcing within the United States, over the period 1950–2099. The rate of increase varies by geographic region, depending on (i) low‐level water vapor availability and transport, and (ii) the frequency of synoptic‐scale cyclones during the warm season. Our results indicate that deceleration of the greenhouse gas emissions trajectory would likely result in slower increases in severe thunderstorm forcing.