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Role of the stratosphere on the predictability of medium‐range weather forecast: A case study of winter 2003–2004
Author(s) -
Kuroda Yuhji
Publication year - 2008
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2008gl034902
Subject(s) - stratosphere , predictability , climatology , environmental science , northern hemisphere , atmospheric sciences , sudden stratospheric warming , polar vortex , range (aeronautics) , quasi biennial oscillation , atmosphere (unit) , meteorology , geology , geography , mathematics , statistics , materials science , composite material
The role of the stratosphere on the predictability of medium‐range weather forecast during the northern hemisphere winter is examined using numerical experiments with a middle atmosphere climate model of the Meteorological Research Institute. It is found that in the winter of 2003/04 when the stratosphere exhibited a large variability called the Polar‐night Jet Oscillation (PJO), the predictability of the model tended to be very good for large‐scale zonal variability if the prediction is performed just before the occurrence of stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs). The role of the stratosphere is examined by comparing experiments for the 2002/03 year and using the model with and without the stratosphere included. The results of the study suggest that taking account of the role of stratospheric variability (PJO) is crucial for improving the predictability of medium‐range weather forecast in certain winters.