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In a changing climate weakening tropical easterly jet induces more violent tropical storms over the north Indian Ocean
Author(s) -
Rao V. Brahmananda,
Ferreira Camila C.,
Franchito S. H.,
Ramakrishna S. S. V. S.
Publication year - 2008
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2008gl034729
Subject(s) - african easterly jet , tropical wave , tropical cyclone , climatology , tropical cyclogenesis , monsoon , wind shear , atlantic hurricane , storm , tropical cyclone rainfall forecasting , tropical atlantic , indian ocean , geology , oceanography , atmospheric sciences , environmental science , sea surface temperature , wind speed , cyclone (programming language) , field programmable gate array , computer science , computer hardware
Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) of summer monsoon over the north Indian ocean is weakening in recent years. The absolute easterly shear shows a strong negative correlation (significant at 99.9% level by students' two sided t‐test) with the number of severe storms suggesting that a decrease in easterly shear is favorable for the formation of more severe tropical storms. For the first time in recorded history a category 5 Hurricane formed in June 2007 together with two more severe tropical storms over the north Indian ocean. Thus if the present decreasing trend of TEJ intensity continues there is a strong likelihood of the formation of tropical cyclones of hurricane intensity even during the summer monsoon. Presently these intense systems are known to form only in the pre and post monsoon seasons, when the vertical wind shear is small.