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Spring frost risk in a changing climate
Author(s) -
Rigby J. R.,
Porporato Amilcare
Publication year - 2008
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2008gl033955
Subject(s) - frost (temperature) , environmental science , spring (device) , vegetation (pathology) , mean radiant temperature , climate change , climatology , phenology , atmospheric sciences , meteorology , geology , geography , ecology , mechanical engineering , oceanography , engineering , medicine , pathology , biology
While both the mean and variance of daily temperature are forecasted to increase in future climate scenarios, studies of spring frost risk to vegetation have relied on changes in mean temperature to understand frost risk in these scenarios. We present a probabilistic model of spring frost risk based on the stochastic‐crossing properties of a coupled temperature‐phenology model in which the mean, variance, and autocorrelation structure of spring temperature may be controlled through independent parameters. The model results show that frost risk to vegetation is as sensitive to increases in daily temperature variance (which increases frost risk) as to increases in the mean temperature (which decreases frost risk).