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Effects of doubled CO 2 on tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for onset of deep convection and maximum SST: Simulations based inferences
Author(s) -
Sud Y. C.,
Walker G. K.,
Zhou Y. P.,
Schmidt Gavin A.,
Lau K.M.,
Cahalan Robert F.
Publication year - 2008
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2008gl033872
Subject(s) - convection , sea surface temperature , climatology , environmental science , atmospheric sciences , atmosphere (unit) , water vapor , tropical cyclone , atmospheric convection , atmospheric model , meteorology , geology , troposphere , physics
A primary concern of CO2‐induced warming is the associated rise of tropical (10S‐10N) sea‐surface temperatures (SSTs). GISS Model‐E was used to produce two sets of simulations‐one with the present‐day and one with doubled CO 2 in the atmosphere. The intrinsic usefulness of model guidance in the tropics was confirmed when the model simulated realistic convective coupling between SSTs and atmospheric soundings and that the simulated‐data correlations between SSTs and 300 hPa moist‐static energies were similar to the observed. Model predicted SST limits for (i) the onset of deep convection and (ii) maximum SST, increased in the doubled CO 2 environment. Changes in cloud heights, cloud frequencies, and cloud mass‐fractions showed that convective‐cloud changes increased the SSTs, while warmer mixed‐layer of the doubled CO 2 contained ∼10% more water vapor; clearly that would be conducive to more intense storms and hurricanes.