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Interannual temperature predictions using the CMIP3 multi‐model ensemble mean
Author(s) -
Laepple Thomas,
Jewson Stephen,
Coughlin Katie
Publication year - 2008
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2008gl033576
Subject(s) - hindcast , climatology , environmental science , coupled model intercomparison project , mean radiant temperature , sea surface temperature , general circulation model , ensemble average , meteorology , climate model , climate change , atmospheric sciences , geology , oceanography , geography
We present a simple method to make multi‐year surface temperature forecasts using the climate change simulations of the CMIP3 database prepared for the IPCC AR4 report. By calibrating the multi‐model ensemble mean with current observations, we are able to make skillful interannual forecasts of mean temperatures. The method is validated using extensive hindcast experiments and is shown to perform favorably compared to a recent forecast method based on a global circulation model with assimilated initial conditions. Five year forecasts for the global mean temperature, the Northern Hemispheric mean temperature and the summer sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the main development region for hurricanes (MDR) are presented.