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Exploring the range of climate biome projections for tropical South America: The role of CO 2 fertilization and seasonality
Author(s) -
Lapola David M.,
Oyama Marcos D.,
Nobre Carlos A.
Publication year - 2009
Publication title -
global biogeochemical cycles
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.512
H-Index - 187
eISSN - 1944-9224
pISSN - 0886-6236
DOI - 10.1029/2008gb003357
Subject(s) - biome , amazon rainforest , vegetation (pathology) , range (aeronautics) , environmental science , tropical vegetation , tropical climate , tropics , dry season , climatology , tropical savanna climate , ecology , seasonality , climate change , geography , atmospheric sciences , ecosystem , biology , geology , medicine , materials science , pathology , composite material
Tropical South America vegetation cover projections for the end of the century differ considerably depending on climate scenario and also on how physiological processes are considered in vegetation models. In this paper we use a potential vegetation model (CPTEC‐PVM2) to analyze biome distribution in tropical South America under a range of climate projections and a range of estimates about the effects of increased atmospheric CO 2 . We show that if the CO 2 “fertilization effect” indeed takes place and is maintained in the long term in tropical forests, then it will avoid biome shifts in Amazonia in most of the climate scenarios, even if the effect of CO 2 fertilization is halved. However, if CO 2 fertilization does not play any important role on tropical forests in the future or if dry season is longer than 4 months (projected by 2/14 GCMs), then there is replacement of large portions of Amazonia by tropical savanna.