Open AccessA Simple Test for Changes in Statistical Distributions
Author(s) -
Benestad Rasmus E.
Publication year - 2008
Publication title -
eos, transactions american geophysical union
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.316
H-Index - 86
eISSN - 2324-9250
pISSN - 0096-3941
DOI - 10.1029/2008eo410002
Subject(s) - simple (philosophy) , independent and identically distributed random variables , series (stratigraphy) , variable (mathematics) , statistical hypothesis testing , term (time) , computer science , test (biology) , random variable , mathematics , statistics , econometrics , ecology , mathematical analysis , physics , epistemology , quantum mechanics , biology , paleontology , philosophy
It is often difficult to determine whether a variable is undergoing a systematic change. A conventional approach to determining whether a variable exhibits a long‐term change in terms of its statistical properties is to apply a trend test or some kind of time series analysis involving various degrees of complexity. Here it is shown that it is possible to indicate, through a simple test based entirely on mathematical logic, whether a series of numbers consists of independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) numbers. Examples of the application of the i.i.d. test include testing monthly temperatures for new record values [ Benestad , 2004], or studying future trends in extreme monthly precipitation based on large, multimodel ensembles of climate model simulations [ Benestad , 2006].