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Entering into the “greenhouse century”: Recent record temperatures in Switzerland are comparable to the upper temperature quantiles in a greenhouse climate
Author(s) -
Beniston Martin
Publication year - 2007
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2007gl030144
Subject(s) - quantile , environmental science , climate change , proxy (statistics) , greenhouse gas , climatology , climate model , range (aeronautics) , greenhouse , atmospheric sciences , meteorology , geography , econometrics , geology , statistics , mathematics , oceanography , materials science , horticulture , composite material , biology
This paper investigates the recent spate of record‐breaking warm seasons that have affected Switzerland in less than a decade and compares the seasonal statistics to those simulated for a “greenhouse‐gas” climate by the end of the 21st century. The peaks of minimum and maximum temperatures observed during some the record seasons enter well into the 25%–75% temperature quantile range for the scenario climate simulated by a set of regional climate models. The anomalously warm seasons allow a “preview” of conditions that may occur with greater frequency in the future. The use of current data as a form of proxy for the future enables an assessment of the possible impacts on the natural and socio‐economic environments, and can help in considering possible adaptation strategies to reduce some of the associated risks of climatic change.