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Tropical cyclones over the Mediterranean Sea in climate change simulations
Author(s) -
Gaertner M. A.,
Jacob D.,
Gil V.,
Domínguez M.,
Padorno E.,
Sánchez E.,
Castro M.
Publication year - 2007
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2007gl029977
Subject(s) - tropical cyclone , climatology , climate change , environmental science , climate model , mediterranean climate , mediterranean sea , tropical cyclone scales , african easterly jet , tropical cyclone rainfall forecasting , cyclone (programming language) , sea surface temperature , geography , oceanography , tropical wave , geology , archaeology , field programmable gate array , computer science , computer hardware
Tropical cyclones form only under specific environmental conditions. Anthropogenic climate change might alter the geographical areas where tropical cyclones can develop. Using an ensemble of regional climate models, we find an increase in the extremes of cyclone intensity over the Mediterranean Sea under a climate change scenario. At least for the most sensitive model, the increase in intensity is clearly associated with the formation of tropical cyclones. Previous studies did not find evidence of changes in the projected areas of formation of tropical cyclones (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007; Walsh, 2004; Lionello et al., 2002). Those studies were based either on relatively low‐resolution global climate models or on one particular regional climate model. The use of a multi‐model ensemble of relatively high‐resolution regional climate models has allowed us to detect for the first time a risk of tropical cyclone development over the Mediterranean Sea under future climate change conditions.