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Sensitivity of U.S. surface ozone to future emissions and climate changes
Author(s) -
Tao Zhining,
Williams Allen,
Huang HoChun,
Caughey Michael,
Liang XinZhong
Publication year - 2007
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2007gl029455
Subject(s) - ozone , environmental science , climate change , metropolitan area , tropospheric ozone , climate sensitivity , climatology , atmospheric sciences , climate model , meteorology , geography , geology , oceanography , archaeology
The relative contributions of projected future emissions and climate changes to U.S. surface ozone concentrations are investigated focusing on California, the Midwest, the Northeast, and Texas. By 2050 regional average ozone concentrations increase by 2–15% under the IPCC SRES A1Fi (“dirty”) scenario, and decrease by 4–12% under the B1 (relatively “clean”) scenario. However, the magnitudes of ozone changes differ significantly between major metropolitan and rural areas. These ozone changes are dominated by the emissions changes in 61% area of the contiguous U.S. under the B1 scenario, but are largely determined by the projected climate changes in 46% area under the A1Fi scenario. In the ozone responses to climate changes, the biogenic emissions changes contribute strongly over the Northeast, moderately in the Midwest, and negligibly in other regions.