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Stochastic coupling of rainfall and biomass dynamics
Author(s) -
Nordbotten Jan M.,
RodriguezIturbe Ignacio,
Celia Michael A.
Publication year - 2007
Publication title -
water resources research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.863
H-Index - 217
eISSN - 1944-7973
pISSN - 0043-1397
DOI - 10.1029/2006wr005068
Subject(s) - biomass (ecology) , environmental science , precipitation , probabilistic logic , water content , variance (accounting) , stochastic modelling , scale (ratio) , soil science , probability distribution , mathematics , atmospheric sciences , statistics , hydrology (agriculture) , meteorology , ecology , geology , geography , geotechnical engineering , accounting , cartography , business , biology
A modeling scheme is presented to derive the probabilistic structure of plant biomass when subjected to stochastic precipitation conditions. Using the fact that soil moisture varies on a much shorter scale than plant biomass, analytical expressions are derived for the steady state probability distribution of the average plant biomass over a period T , which is expected to be of the order of 2 or 3 months. Analytical expressions are also given for the time‐dependent mean and variance of the biomass over a period T . The analysis is based on a simple model linking the daily dynamics of plant growth and soil moisture. The derived analytical expressions reproduce the results obtained from a full simulation of the underlying model very well. The results allow the study of the impact of different climatic scenarios regarding changes in frequency and intensity of rainfall, as well as changes in the mean seasonal temperature, on the expected value and variance of plant biomass throughout time.