Open AccessCurrently active regions of decelerating‐accelerating seismic strain in central Asia
Author(s) -
Papazachos B. C.,
Scordilis E. M.,
Panagiotopoulos D. G.,
Papazachos C. B.,
Karakaisis G. F.
Publication year - 2007
Publication title -
journal of geophysical research: solid earth
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.67
H-Index - 298
eISSN - 2156-2202
pISSN - 0148-0227
DOI - 10.1029/2006jb004587
Subject(s) - seismology , induced seismicity , geology , magnitude (astronomy) , earthquake prediction , shock (circulatory) , geodesy , physics , astronomy , medicine
Accelerating preshock seismic strain in a broad (critical) region and decelerating preshock seismic strain in a narrower (seismogenic) region constitute a model for intermediate‐term prediction of strong main shocks. An effort is made in the present work for a forward test of the Decelerating‐Accelerating Seismic Strain (D‐AS) model by identifying such patterns and estimating the corresponding, probably ensuing, strong main shocks (M ≥ 7.0) in central Asia (20°N–45°N, 42°E–105°E). Five such patterns have been identified, and the origin time, magnitude, and epicentral geographic coordinates of each of the corresponding main shocks have been estimated (predicted). Model uncertainties of the estimated time, magnitude, and space parameters of these probably ensuing main shocks, as well as appropriate statistical tests against a standard Gutenberg‐Richter seismicity distribution, are also presented to allow a future objective evaluation of the model's efficiency for intermediate‐term earthquake prediction.