Climate change uncertainty for daily minimum and maximum temperatures: A model inter‐comparison

Several impacts of climate change may depend more on changes in mean daily minimum (T min ) or maximum (T max ) temperatures than daily averages. To evaluate uncertainties in these variables, we compared projections of T min and T max changes by 2046–2065 for 12 climate models under an A2 emission scenario. Average modeled changes in T min were similar to those for T max , with slightly greater increases in T min consistent with historical trends exhibiting a reduction in diurnal temperature ranges. In contrast, the inter‐model variability of T min and T max projections exhibited substantial differences. For example, inter‐model standard deviations of June–August T max changes were more than 50% greater than for T min throughout much of North America, Europe, and Asia. Model differences in cloud changes, which exert relatively greater influence on T max during summer and T min during winter, were identified as the main source of uncertainty disparities. These results highlight the importance of considering separately projections for T max and T min when assessing climate change impacts, even in cases where average projected changes are similar. In addition, impacts that are most sensitive to summertime T min or wintertime T max may be more predictable than suggested by analyses using only projections of daily average temperatures.