An ENSO shift revisited | Zendy

Solow Andrew R. | Zendy

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An ENSO shift revisited

Author(s) -

Solow Andrew R.

Publication year - 2006

Publication title -

geophysical research letters

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007

H-Index - 273

eISSN - 1944-8007

pISSN - 0094-8276

DOI - 10.1029/2006gl027632

Subject(s) - el niño southern oscillation , climatology , multivariate enso index , global warming , environmental science , southern oscillation , meteorology , econometrics , climate change , geology , mathematics , geography , oceanography

An influential 1996 paper presented a statistical analysis showing that the prolonged ENSO warm event of the early 1990's was inconsistent with the historical pattern of ENSO variability and therefore concluded that there had been a shift in ENSO behavior possibly connected to global warming. A fundamental problem with this earlier analysis is that the data used to test for a shift in ENSO behavior were not independent of the data used to identify the hypothetical shift. A new analysis is presented that avoids this problem by using more recent data. The results raise a question about the earlier finding.

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