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Timing of global warming in IPCC AR4 AOGCM simulations
Author(s) -
Kattsov Vladimir M.,
Sporyshev Petr V.
Publication year - 2006
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2006gl027476
Subject(s) - climatology , environmental science , global warming , climate change , climate model , aerosol , global change , general circulation model , sea surface temperature , ensemble average , atmospheric sciences , meteorology , geology , oceanography , geography
Spatio‐temporal features are considered of statistically significant stable change of surface air temperature obtained from 20th and 21st century simulations using a 17‐member ensemble of global climate models forced with evolving green house gas and sulfate aerosol atmospheric concentrations. The analysis shows that the tropical Indian Ocean and western Pacific, on the one hand, and the northern North Atlantic and Southern Ocean, on the other hand, stand out as the most contrasting features of the ensemble mean timing distribution. The former are characterized by the earliest warming, while the latter demonstrate latest or not achieved stable changes of the temperature. Qualitative agreement between the model‐ and observationally derived global pictures of the stable change timing offers an opportunity to test model performance in reproducing the forced climate evolution. An illustration is given of the model performance evaluation based on the test application.