Adjoint‐based forecast sensitivities of Typhoon Rusa

Sensitivities of the forecast to changes in the initial state are evaluated for Typhoon Rusa, which passed through the Korean Peninsula in 2002, to understand the impact of initial condition uncertainties on the forecast and thence to diagnose the sensitive regions for adaptive observations. To assess the forecast sensitivities, adjoint‐based sensitivities were used. Sensitive regions are located horizontally in the right half circle of the typhoon, and vertically in the lower and upper troposphere which coincide with the inflow and outflow regions near the typhoon. Forecast error is reduced around 18% by extracting properly weighted adjoint‐based forecast sensitivity perturbations from the initial state, and the correction occurs primarily in the lower to mid‐troposphere where the forecast error is the largest. In contrast to the improvement in the overall forecast, the track and intensity forecast are not improved much through the modification of the initial condition by adjoint‐based forecast sensitivities.