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Probabilistic modeling of eruptive activity at Etna volcano using InSAR surface displacements and ATSR thermal radiance
Author(s) -
Patrick M. R.,
Frazer L. N.,
Brooks B. A.
Publication year - 2006
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2006gl026983
Subject(s) - radiance , volcano , interferometric synthetic aperture radar , geology , probabilistic logic , satellite , remote sensing , geophysics , synthetic aperture radar , seismology , aerospace engineering , computer science , engineering , artificial intelligence
Satellite monitoring offers a powerful means to regularly characterize the mechanical and thermal states of active volcanoes. Satellite‐measured surface inflation and radiant heat flux reflect the pressurization and discharge, respectively, of a magmatic system, suggesting that studying these parameters together may help in better understanding future eruptive activity. We incorporate InSAR surface displacement data and ATSR thermal radiance data into a probabilistic model for activity at Etna volcano in 1996–2000, when surface deformation and thermal radiance appeared to be related in a periodic fashion. The probabilistic approach addresses both the magnitude and timing of eruptive events, based upon a simple physical model of eruptions as renewal processes. We anticipate that this approach could serve as a framework for probabilistic assessment in eruption scenarios with persistent activity and multiple monitoring datastreams.