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CO 2 and CH 4 exchanges between land ecosystems and the atmosphere in northern high latitudes over the 21st century
Author(s) -
Zhuang Qianlai,
Melillo Jerry M.,
Sarofim Marcus C.,
Kicklighter David W.,
McGuire A. David,
Felzer Benjamin S.,
Sokolov Andrei,
Prinn Ronald G.,
Steudler Paul A.,
Hu Shaomin
Publication year - 2006
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2006gl026972
Subject(s) - atmosphere (unit) , permafrost , environmental science , atmospheric sciences , radiative forcing , latitude , ecosystem , climate change , greenhouse gas , climatology , climate model , carbon fibers , carbon cycle , meteorology , oceanography , geology , geography , ecology , materials science , geodesy , composite number , composite material , biology
Terrestrial ecosystems of the northern high latitudes (above 50°N) exchange large amounts of CO 2 and CH 4 with the atmosphere each year. Here we use a process‐based model to estimate the budget of CO 2 and CH 4 of the region for current climate conditions and for future scenarios by considering effects of permafrost dynamics, CO 2 fertilization of photosynthesis and fire. We find that currently the region is a net source of carbon to the atmosphere at 276 Tg C yr ‐1 . We project that throughout the 21st century, the region will most likely continue as a net source of carbon and the source will increase by up to 473 Tg C yr −1 by the end of the century compared to the current emissions. However our coupled carbon and climate model simulations show that these emissions will exert relatively small radiative forcing on global climate system compared to large amounts of anthropogenic emissions.