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Projected changes in the Caspian Sea level for the 21st century based on the latest AOGCM simulations
Author(s) -
Elguindi N.,
Giorgi F.
Publication year - 2006
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2006gl025943
Subject(s) - environmental science , evapotranspiration , greenhouse gas , surface runoff , climatology , precipitation , structural basin , climate change , sea level , general circulation model , climate model , oceanography , geology , meteorology , geography , ecology , paleontology , biology
We use output from global climate change simulations with seven Atmosphere‐Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) to assess possible changes in Caspian Sea basin hydrologic budget and corresponding changes in the Caspian Sea Level (CSL) for the 21st century under different greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios (A1b and A2). Although most models project an increase in precipitation over the Volga river basin, where most of the runoff into the Caspian Sea is generated, a steady decline in the CSL is mostly estimated. This is due to large increases in evapotranspiration over land and over the Caspian Sea surface. By the end of the 21st century, the ensemble average of the model‐based estimates suggest a 9 meter drop in the CSL for both scenarios analyzed. This could be potentially devastating for the surrounding region if no adaptation or mitigation measures are taken.