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Alternatives to stabilization scenarios
Author(s) -
Frame D. J.,
Stone D. A.,
Stott P. A.,
Allen M. R.
Publication year - 2006
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2006gl025801
Subject(s) - environmental science , greenhouse gas , exploit , transient (computer programming) , global warming , climate sensitivity , climate change , carbon dioxide in earth's atmosphere , climate model , climatology , carbon dioxide , runaway climate change , natural resource economics , atmospheric sciences , economics , computer science , effects of global warming , geology , chemistry , oceanography , computer security , organic chemistry , operating system
Studies attempting to constrain climate sensitivity, or equilibrium surface warming in response to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide, by comparing models with observations report a wide range of distributions, particularly regarding the upper bound. There is, by contrast, a considerable consensus surrounding the transient climate response, in large part because it is directly related to observed warming attributable to greenhouse gases. We argue that scenarios which can exploit this consensus may be preferable to stabilization scenarios for practical policy‐making purposes. The difficulty of ruling out a high equilibrium warming response to elevated carbon dioxide levels may provide an opportunity for reassessment of the stabilization scenario as the centerpiece of climate policy in favour of scenarios that are more directly constrained by the transient response.