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Conditional parametric models for storm sewer runoff
Author(s) -
Jonsdottir H.,
Nielsen H. Aa,
Madsen H.,
Eliasson J.,
Palsson O. P.,
Nielsen M. K.
Publication year - 2007
Publication title -
water resources research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.863
H-Index - 217
eISSN - 1944-7973
pISSN - 0043-1397
DOI - 10.1029/2005wr004500
Subject(s) - autoregressive model , impulse response , parametric statistics , nonlinear system , surface runoff , mathematics , parametric model , linear regression , storm , statistics , meteorology , geography , mathematical analysis , ecology , physics , quantum mechanics , biology
The method of conditional parametric modeling is introduced for flow prediction in a sewage system. It is a well‐known fact that in hydrological modeling the response (runoff) to input (precipitation) varies depending on soil moisture and several other factors. Consequently, nonlinear input‐output models are needed. The model formulation described in this paper is similar to the traditional linear models like final impulse response (FIR) and autoregressive exogenous (ARX) except that the parameters vary as a function of some external variables. The parameter variation is modeled by local lines, using kernels for local linear regression. As such, the method might be referred to as a nearest neighbor method. The results achieved in this study were compared to results from the conventional linear methods, FIR and ARX. The increase in the coefficient of determination is substantial. Furthermore, the new approach conserves the mass balance better. Hence this new approach looks promising for various hydrological models and analysis.