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Predicting the strength of solar cycle 24 using a flux‐transport dynamo‐based tool
Author(s) -
Dikpati Mausumi,
de Toma Giuliana,
Gilman Peter A.
Publication year - 2006
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2005gl025221
Subject(s) - dynamo , solar dynamo , solar cycle , flux (metallurgy) , solar cycle 24 , amplitude , sunspot , environmental science , physics , meteorology , dynamo theory , atmospheric sciences , magnetic field , materials science , solar wind , optics , quantum mechanics , metallurgy
We construct a solar cycle strength prediction tool by modifying a calibrated flux‐transport dynamo model, and make predictions of the amplitude of upcoming solar cycle 24. We predict that cycle 24 will have a 30–50% higher peak than cycle 23, in contrast to recent predictions by Svalgaard et al. and Schatten, who used a precursor method to forecast that cycle 24 will be considerably smaller than 23. The skill of our approach is supported by the flux transport dynamo model's ability to correctly 'forecast' the relative peaks of cycles 16–23 using sunspot area data from previous cycles.