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Forward modeling of regional scale tree‐ring patterns in the southeastern United States and the recent influence of summer drought
Author(s) -
Anchukaitis K. J.,
Evans M. N.,
Kaplan A.,
Vaganov E. A.,
Hughes M. K.,
GrissinoMayer H. D.,
Cane M. A.
Publication year - 2006
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2005gl025050
Subject(s) - dendrochronology , climatology , proxy (statistics) , paleoclimatology , precipitation , environmental science , climate change , tree (set theory) , dendroclimatology , climate model , geography , meteorology , geology , mathematics , statistics , oceanography , mathematical analysis , archaeology
We use a mechanistic model of tree‐ring formation to simulate regional patterns of climate‐tree growth relationships in the southeastern United States. Modeled chronologies are consistent with actual tree‐ring data, demonstrating that our simulations have skill in reproducing broad‐scale patterns of the proxy's response to climate variability. The model predicts that a decrease in summer precipitation, associated with a weakening Bermuda High, has become an additional control on tree ring growth during recent decades. A nonlinear response of tree growth to climate variability has implications for the calibration of tree‐ring records for paleoclimate reconstructions and the prediction of ecosystem responses to climate change.