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Multi‐model representation of the North Atlantic Oscillation in the 20th and 21st centuries
Author(s) -
McHugh Maurice J.,
Rogers Jeffrey C.
Publication year - 2005
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2005gl023679
Subject(s) - north atlantic oscillation , anomaly (physics) , climatology , perturbation (astronomy) , general circulation model , arctic oscillation , environmental science , forcing (mathematics) , atmospheric circulation , oscillation (cell signaling) , sea level , geology , climate change , oceanography , physics , northern hemisphere , quantum mechanics , condensed matter physics , biology , genetics
Ten coupled ocean‐atmosphere general circulation models (CGCM) are used to reproduce NAO mean sea level pressure and 2 meter air temperature fields highly correlated to the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAOI), during a control period from 1961–1990. Three enhanced CO 2 perturbation scenarios are compared to the control for 2070–2099, using pattern correlations and normalized root mean square errors between perturbation and control periods. It is found that models can successfully reproduce observed NAO sea level pressure and temperature anomaly fields. Model control SLP anomaly fields, however, more closely resemble the Arctic Oscillation than the expected NAO SLP distribution due to an expansion of the North Atlantic low pressure area. Analysis for the period 2070–2099 under the 3 enhanced CO 2 scenarios shows intensification of the NAOI due to CO 2 forcing, but with a weaker temporal trend relative to the control period.