Premium
Hydrological cycle in the upper Mississippi River basin: 20th century simulations by multiple GCMs
Author(s) -
Takle Eugene S.,
Jha Manoj,
Anderson Christopher J.
Publication year - 2005
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2005gl023630
Subject(s) - streamflow , gcm transcription factors , climatology , environmental science , drainage basin , uncorrelated , general circulation model , climate model , structural basin , annual cycle , climate change , geology , mathematics , statistics , geography , oceanography , cartography , paleontology
We used 20th century simulations by nine global climate models (GCMs) to provide input for a streamflow model to simulate baseline hydrologic conditions in the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB). Statistical tests revealed that streamflow data produced by members of the GCM multi‐model ensemble were serially uncorrelated at all lags and formed unimodal distributions and that GCM multi‐model results may be used to assess annual streamflow in the UMRB. Although all low‐resolution GCMs produced large differences from observations of streamflow and hydrological components simulated by the streamflow model, the nine‐member ensemble performed quite well. Results of statistical tests indicate that, of all models used, the high‐resolution GCM – the only high‐resolution model tested – gives simulated streamflows much closer to observed values, despite the fact that its low‐resolution sister model has no advantage over the other seven low‐resolution models.