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Effects of simulated natural variability on Arctic temperature projections
Author(s) -
Sorteberg Asgeir,
Furevik Tore,
Drange Helge,
Kvamstø Nils Gunnar
Publication year - 2005
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2005gl023404
Subject(s) - climatology , environmental science , arctic , forcing (mathematics) , climate change , zonal and meridional , arctic sea ice decline , sea ice , the arctic , atmosphere (unit) , climate model , atmospheric sciences , arctic geoengineering , natural (archaeology) , arctic ice pack , geology , meteorology , oceanography , geography , drift ice , paleontology
A five‐member ensemble with a coupled atmosphere‐sea ice‐ocean model is used to examine the effects of natural variability on climate projections for the Arctic. The individual ensemble members are initialized from a 300 years control experiment, each starting from different strengths and phases of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. The ensemble members are integrated for 80 years with a 1% per year increase in the atmospheric concentration of CO 2 . The main findings are that on decadal time scales, multi‐model spread of estimated temperature changes in the Arctic may potentially be attributed to internal variability of the climate system. During weak CO 2 forcing the internal variability may mask the strength of the anthropogenic signals for several decades. The implications of the findings are that attribution of any Arctic climate change trends calculated over a few decades is difficult.