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Probabilistic climate change projections for CO 2 stabilization profiles
Author(s) -
Knutti Reto,
Joos Fortunat,
Müller Simon A.,
Plattner GianKasper,
Stocker Thomas F.
Publication year - 2005
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2005gl023294
Subject(s) - probabilistic logic , climate change , environmental science , range (aeronautics) , climate sensitivity , sensitivity (control systems) , climatology , probability density function , climate model , overshoot (microwave communication) , term (time) , limit (mathematics) , econometrics , meteorology , mathematics , computer science , statistics , geography , geology , physics , materials science , telecommunications , oceanography , quantum mechanics , electronic engineering , engineering , composite material , mathematical analysis
Probabilistic projections of future climate change for a range of CO 2 stabilization profiles intended for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are presented. A very large ensemble of simulations with the reduced complexity, Bern2.5D climate model is used to explore the uncertainties in projected long‐term changes in surface air temperature and sea level due to uncertainties in climate sensitivity and ocean heat uptake. Previously published probability density functions of climate sensitivity are used to calculate probabilistic projections for different CO 2 stabilization levels and to calculate the probability of not exceeding a certain global mean surface temperature for a given stabilization level. This provides a new way of communicating long‐term uncertainty which can serve as a basis for selecting a CO 2 stabilization level given a temperature limit and help to estimate the overshoot risk society is willing to accept.