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Precursory accelerating seismic moment release (AMR) in a synthetic seismicity catalog: A preliminary study
Author(s) -
Robinson Russell,
Zhou Shiyong,
Johnston Steven,
VereJones David
Publication year - 2005
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2005gl022576
Subject(s) - induced seismicity , seismology , geology , seismic moment , moment (physics) , acceleration , power law , synthetic data , physics , fault (geology) , computer science , mathematics , statistics , algorithm , classical mechanics
A power‐law like acceleration of seismic moment release (AMR) has been proposed as a precursor to large earthquakes. Because of problems with real‐world data, we have used a synthetic seismicity model of 256 interacting faults embedded in a 3‐D elastic half‐space to search for periods of AMR preceding the largest events (Mw ∼ 7.1). In only 5 of 18 cases does the AMR model fit the data significantly better than a linear moment release, and then only weakly so. This proportion, or higher, occurs in 8% of 1000 randomized catalogs. We conclude that either AMR is unlikely to be a common precursor, or that factors contributing to the AMR pattern in the real world are missing from the synthetic model.