A simple model for predicting water table fluctuations in a tidal marsh

Wetland restoration efforts are ongoing in many urban estuaries. In this context the hydrologic characteristics of restored wetlands are of paramount importance since the spatially and temporally variable position of the water table and of soil saturation establishes the oxidation state of the substrate, which, in turn, affects the wetland's biogeochemical composition and the biological communities it is capable of supporting. A relatively simple analytical model developed here describes tidal marsh hydrology from creek bank to interior, considering transient drainage, net meteorological inputs, and tidal effects. Given a series of physical and time‐dependent inputs, the analytical solution derived predicts the position of the water table at points along a transect perpendicular to a tidal creek. Validation of the model using water table time series data collected along three transects at Piermont Marsh, a tidal wetland on the Hudson River in the New York/New Jersey Estuary, indicates good general agreement between observations and predictions, although it may not be precise enough for some kinds of ecological applications. A sensitivity analysis on the model indicates that a range of pairs of transmissivity and specific yield values that increase with distance from the creek results in the same spatial and temporal fluctuations in the water table. This equifinality result is discussed as it relates to the predictive capacity of the model presented.