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Probabilistic behavior of a regional envelope curve
Author(s) -
Castellarin Attilio,
Vogel Richard M.,
Matalas Nicholas C.
Publication year - 2005
Publication title -
water resources research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.863
H-Index - 217
eISSN - 1944-7973
pISSN - 0043-1397
DOI - 10.1029/2004wr003042
Subject(s) - probabilistic logic , envelope (radar) , monte carlo method , flood myth , statistics , interpretation (philosophy) , statistical physics , econometrics , mathematics , computer science , geography , physics , radar , telecommunications , archaeology , programming language
A regional envelope curve (REC) summarizes the current bound on our experience of extreme floods in a region. Although RECs are available for many regions of the world, their traditional deterministic interpretation limits the use of the curves for design purposes, as magnitude, but not frequency of extreme flood events, can be quantified. A probabilistic interpretation of a REC is introduced via an estimate of its exceedance probability. The effect of intersite correlation on the exceedance probability is discussed. Monte Carlo experiments are performed to assess the performance of the estimate of the REC's exceedance probability. Generalized curves are presented for assessing the impact of regional intersite cross correlation on the likelihood of exceeding an observed REC. We also discuss how future developments in the theory of records may improve our ability to quantify the information content of a REC.