Premium
Double trouble for typhoon forecasters
Author(s) -
Peng Melinda S.,
Reynolds Carolyn A.
Publication year - 2005
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2004gl021680
Subject(s) - typhoon , tropical cyclone , climatology , meteorology , tropical cyclone forecast model , environmental science , tropical cyclone scales , forcing (mathematics) , cyclone (programming language) , position (finance) , computer science , geology , geography , finance , field programmable gate array , computer hardware , economics
The sensitivity of tropical cyclone forecast to changes in the initial state is examined using powerful singular vector diagnostics from a global weather forecast model. These techniques reveal the complex impact of both the local and remote environment on the typhoons. We demonstrate how the analyzed position and forecast of one typhoon can have a significant impact on the forecast of a second typhoon, even at distances up to 1861 km. These results highlight the difficulty of tropical cyclone prediction, especially when remote forcing plays a significant role in tropical cyclone motion.