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Multi‐model trends in East African rainfall associated with increased CO 2
Author(s) -
McHugh Maurice J.
Publication year - 2005
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2004gl021632
Subject(s) - climatology , environmental science , east african rift , coupled model intercomparison project , atmosphere (unit) , general circulation model , atmospheric sciences , meteorology , geology , geography , rift , climate change , oceanography , paleontology , structural basin
Nineteen coupled ocean‐atmosphere general circulation models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Program (CMIP) were used to analyze future rainfall conditions over East Africa under enhanced CO 2 conditions. 80 year control runs of these models indicated that four models produced mean annual rainfall distributions closely resembling climatological means and all four models had normalized root mean square errors well within the bounds of observed variability. East African (10°N–20°S, 25°–50°E) rainfall data from transient 80 year experiments which featured CO 2 increases of 1% per year were compared with 80 year control simulations. Results indicate enhanced annual and seasonal rainfall rates, and increased extreme wet period frequency. These results indicate that East Africa may face a future in which mosquito‐borne diseases such as malaria and Rift Valley fever proliferate resulting from increased CO 2 .