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Extended scenarios for glacier melt due to anthropogenic forcing
Author(s) -
Wigley T. M. L.,
Raper S. C. B.
Publication year - 2005
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2004gl021238
Subject(s) - glacier , meltwater , forcing (mathematics) , sea level rise , climatology , future sea level , climate sensitivity , environmental science , ice sheet , climate change , ice sheet model , geology , sea ice , atmospheric sciences , climate model , cryosphere , ice stream , oceanography , geomorphology
The IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) developed a formula for the global meltwater contribution to sea level rise from Glaciers and Small Ice Caps (GSICs) that is applicable out to 2100. We show that, if applied to times beyond 2100 (as is necessary to assess sea level rise for concentration‐stabilization scenarios), the formula imposes an unrealistic upper bound on GSIC melt. A modification is introduced that allows the formula to be extended beyond 2100 with asymptotic melt equal to the initially available ice volume (V 0 ). The modification has a negligible effect on the original TAR formulation out to 2100 and provides support for the IPCC method over this time period. We examine the sensitivity of GSIC melt to uncertainties in V 0 and mass balance sensitivity, and give results for a range of CO 2 concentration stabilization cases. Approximately 73–94% of GSIC ice is lost by 2400.