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The North Atlantic Oscillation and greenhouse‐gas forcing
Author(s) -
Kuzmina Svetlana I.,
Bengtsson Lennart,
Johannessen Ola M.,
Drange Helge,
Bobylev Leonid P.,
Miles Martin W.
Publication year - 2005
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2004gl021064
Subject(s) - north atlantic oscillation , climatology , environmental science , arctic oscillation , greenhouse gas , forcing (mathematics) , climate model , climate change , atmospheric sciences , arctic , coupled model intercomparison project , geology , oceanography , northern hemisphere
The results of 12 coupled climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP2) are compared together with observational data in order to investigate: 1) How the current generation of climate models reproduce the major features of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and 2) How the NAO intensity and variability may change in response to increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Long‐term changes in the intensity and spatial position of the NAO nodes (Icelandic Low and Azores High) are investigated, and different definitions of the NAO index and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) are considered. The observed temporal trend in the NAO in recent decades lies beyond the natural variability found in the model control runs. For the majority of the models, there is a significant increase in the NAO trend in the forced runs relative to the control runs, suggesting that the NAO may intensify with further increases in greenhouse‐gas concentrations.